| Analyst | Bahauddin Foizee |

The increasing power of the Chinese military in Southeast Asia is causing ASEAN countries, which usually avoid joint security efforts, to reconsider their approach.

The activities of China’s military have led ASEAN nations to focus on improving their own armed forces. For example, Singapore, a small city-state, is enhancing its military, particularly its navy and air force, to defend against potential threats from Malaysia or Indonesia.

Over the past 15 years, defense spending in the region has doubled, with countries like Thailand and Indonesia increasing their budgets by about 10% each year. According to Felix Heiduk from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Southeast Asian militaries are shifting their focus from internal security to external defense and conventional warfare. This change is driven by growing concerns about China’s rise and its effects on regional security amid US-China tensions.

Some ASEAN nations are forming their own security alliances to counter threats from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is the largest military force in the region.

China’s assertiveness, especially under President Xi Jinping, has made the South China Sea effectively a Chinese-controlled area. The PLA has built military bases on several islands and has clashed with Vietnam and the Philippines. While Vietnam has been more proactive in defending its claims, the Philippines has been less assertive under former President Rodrigo Duterte.

In a significant shift, the US Navy and ten Southeast Asian countries recently conducted joint maritime exercises in the South China Sea, marking a departure from ASEAN’s usual practices. These exercises included multiple warships and aircraft and were aimed at demonstrating a unified regional response.

Historically, ASEAN was formed in 1967 to promote economic cooperation among its member states, rather than military collaboration. During the Cold War, the threat of communism influenced its policies, but this diminished after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1989. Since then, ASEAN has mainly focused on trade and dialogue.

While there are discussions about evolving into a security alliance, such a shift remains unlikely. However, some ASEAN members might form security partnerships with countries like Australia, India, or Japan.

China’s activities in the South China Sea are a major concern for ASEAN nations, many of which view China’s presence as a threat. Some have direct disputes with China over territorial waters.

China is gradually expanding its control over the resource-rich South China Sea, taking a slow approach that attracts less international backlash. This tactic contrasts with more aggressive historical occupations.

Currently, ASEAN countries do not have enough military strength to challenge the PLA on their own. However, they are all working to strengthen their armed forces. China is aware of this growing military capability, although it believes that individually, these nations’ upgrades are not a major threat. Yet, the PLA understands that if these forces were to combine, they could pose a significant challenge.

For example, Singapore’s navy alone cannot defend against China’s powerful navy, so building partnerships with other regional and extra-regional forces, such as those of Australia, India, Indonesia, and the United States, is essential. This is the strategy that many ASEAN nations are pursuing.