| Analyst | Bahauddin Foizee |

In the increasingly volatile waters of the Indo-Pacific, the city-state of Singapore is making a concerted push to fortify its naval defenses. The move comes at a time when regional tensions are rising, driven by the strategic rivalry between China and its neighbors, as well as internal disputes with Malaysia. Singapore’s decision to acquire sophisticated new naval assets—most notably, four Type-218SG submarines and advanced Joint Multi-Mission Ships—signals a shift in its defense posture, positioning the country as a more assertive player in the region. But what exactly is driving this expansion, and what does it mean for the broader geopolitical landscape?

Shifting Naval Balance in Southeast Asia

Singapore’s decision to invest heavily in its navy, particularly with a focus on submarines, speaks to the broader security dynamics unfolding in Southeast Asia. The acquisition of the Type-218SG submarines, tailored specifically for Singapore’s shallow and busy waters, is a clear signal of intent. These submarines are equipped with advanced Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, allowing them to stay submerged for longer periods without the need to surface. With a capacity to carry between 18 and 21 torpedoes and potential upgrades for long-range missiles, these vessels are designed not just for defense but for offensive operations if necessary. This marks a significant shift in Singapore’s naval doctrine, which historically has focused on deterrence and defensive posturing rather than active projection of force.

Singapore’s expanding submarine fleet reflects a regional arms race, particularly in response to China’s growing military presence. As China strengthens its naval capabilities, especially its strategic focus on submarines and aircraft carriers, neighboring nations are scrambling to bolster their own maritime forces. Countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are adding submarines to their fleets, with numbers rising sharply in the past two decades. The broader Southeast Asian region has witnessed a 300% increase in submarine procurement since the early 2000s, with a 400% increase expected in the near future. This surge is fueled by the desire to counter China’s dominance in the South China Sea (SCS), a vital maritime crossroads for global trade and security.

China Factor: A Regional Arms Race?

At the heart of this naval expansion lies the looming shadow of China. Beijing’s increasingly assertive maritime policies—particularly in the South China Sea—have alarmed its neighbors, who view China’s expansive territorial claims and military buildup as a direct challenge to their sovereignty and regional stability. China’s ongoing efforts to bolster its naval capabilities, including the procurement of new aircraft carriers and submarines, have set off a chain reaction among Southeast Asian countries. These nations, long wary of China’s rise, are now focused on strengthening their own maritime defenses.

For Singapore, China’s ambitions in the South China Sea are particularly concerning. As a global shipping hub, Singapore’s security is tightly intertwined with the free and unimpeded passage of goods through these waters. A significant portion of global trade transits the South China Sea, making it a critical area for Singapore’s economic interests. Thus, strengthening its naval capabilities is not just about deterring military threats; it’s also about safeguarding Singapore’s economic lifeline. The acquisition of submarines—stealthy, powerful, and versatile—gives Singapore the ability to defend its interests in these contested waters while also contributing to a regional balancing act against China’s growing naval power.

Malaysia Factor: Historical Tensions

However, the rationale for Singapore’s naval buildup is not driven solely by China’s rise. Malaysia, its immediate neighbor, remains an ongoing source of security concern. While the two countries share a largely peaceful coexistence today, their relationship has been marked by periodic tension since Singapore’s independence in 1965. This tension flared up again in 2018 when Malaysia controversially attempted to extend the borders of its Johor Bahru port into waters that Singapore claims as its own. Malaysia’s naval modernization plan, dubbed the ‘15 to 5 Transformation Program,’ which seeks to reduce the number of ship classes in its navy while increasing overall capabilities, has only heightened Singapore’s security concerns.

Given Malaysia’s historical military rivalry with Singapore, there are clear reasons for Singapore to maintain a strong and capable navy. While the primary threat likely comes from China, the possibility of Malaysia’s naval buildup playing into regional power dynamics cannot be ignored. As Malaysia reshapes its naval forces, Singapore is keen to ensure that it remains capable of defending itself from any potential escalation in maritime disputes. By strengthening its own naval capabilities, Singapore aims not only to counter regional threats but also to send a message that any attempt to challenge its sovereignty or strategic interests will be met with formidable resistance.

Rising Regional Power?

Singapore’s naval expansion could also signal a shift in the country’s overall foreign policy. Historically, Singapore has maintained a low-profile approach to regional security, focusing on diplomacy, trade, and multilateralism. However, as the geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly complex, especially with the rise of China and the growing militarization of the South China Sea, Singapore may be quietly recalibrating its strategy toward a more proactive, even assertive, security posture. The addition of limited aircraft carrier capabilities and the incorporation of unmanned platforms, such as drones and unmanned vessels, further underscores this evolution.

As part of its broader strategy, Singapore’s growing military capabilities are likely to be aligned with regional partners who share its concerns about China. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—comprising the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—has emerged as a potential counterbalance to China’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific. While Singapore has not explicitly aligned itself with the Quad, its increasing military sophistication suggests that it may be positioning itself to play a more prominent role in regional security frameworks. By bolstering its own naval power, Singapore could be signaling its readiness to contribute more actively to collective regional security initiatives.

Strategic Necessity or Provocation?

Singapore’s decision to bolster its naval capabilities through the acquisition of advanced submarines and multi-mission ships is a direct response to the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. As the South China Sea becomes increasingly contested, and as China continues to assert its influence, Singapore’s strategic need to ensure its maritime security has never been more pressing. Yet, this naval buildup comes with risks—particularly in the context of its complex relationship with Malaysia and the broader power dynamics of the region.

While Singapore’s military expansion is driven by necessity, it is also a reflection of broader regional trends—one in which Southeast Asian countries are seeking to counterbalance China’s growing naval power. Whether this buildup leads to greater regional stability or further exacerbates tensions remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Singapore is no longer content to remain a passive observer in regional security matters. Instead, it is actively asserting itself as a crucial player in the evolving naval balance of the Indo-Pacific. How other nations respond to Singapore’s growing military capabilities will shape the future trajectory of regional security in the years to come